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Levels I'm watching: 1.0800 is the obvious round number, but actual support is more like 1.0775. Resistance up top is 1.0880 first, then 1.0940. RSI on the 4H is starting to curl up from oversold and price is making a higher low, so the downside push is losing steam. I'm waiting to see if we get a dip into 1.0825-1.0800 that actually holds. A 4H close back above 1.0850 would be my confirmation for the mean reversion play. Plan is to enter around 1.0830, stop below 1.0770, first target 1.0880 then 1.0940. Not trying to call a new uptrend here, just buying the washout and letting price snap back after the false break.

Gold's just hanging around above a bigger demand zone on the daily. It keeps defending 2620, which lines up with an old breakout area and the rising 50-day EMA. I need a daily close above 2650 to get excited, but if buyers show up between 2620-2635 I'll take an early entry with stops under 2600. First resistance is 2680, then the round 2700. A breakout trade from 2640 targeting 2700 with a stop at 2610 gives about 3:1. Long as 2600 holds on a closing basis, the uptrend isn't broken. I'm not chasing here—either a pullback into that zone or a clean daily push through 2650. I'll use lower timeframe rejection wicks and volume to time it. If 2600 goes, I'm out. For now, buying dips on OANDA:XAUUSD makes sense.

CPI and a couple Fed speakers are on the calendar, so I'm not chasing a thin breakout into data. I'd rather wait for the reaction and take the clean confirmed push. Breakout with volume, holds above 2338 on a retest? That's my entry. If price grinds sideways through news and stays inside the range, I keep waiting. Gold tends to squeeze hard into macro events, and with the dollar struggling, the easy path still looks up.